UK Jobs Hold Firm Ahead of Canada CPI
The week kicks into gear with a heavy data slate across Europe and North America. In the UK, a jump in employment and earnings has caught attention despite signs of softening wage growth. Meanwhile, Germany’s ZEW sentiment readings show a sharp slowdown in business optimism, and traders now await a string of inflation releases from Canada and the U.S. later today. Markets remain cautious ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s speech tomorrow, with the dollar on the back foot and commodity prices holding firm.
Key Events – Tuesday, April 15
- UK Labour Market (Feb):
- Employment Change: +206K vs 144K previous
- Claimant Count Change: +18.7K
- Average Earnings Ex-Bonus: +5.9% YoY (vs 6.0% expected)
- Unemployment Rate: Steady at 4.4%
The UK jobs market remains tight, though slowing wage growth may ease pressure on the Bank of England to keep rates elevated.
- Eurozone/German Sentiment (Apr):
- ZEW Economic Sentiment (Germany): Falls to 9.3 (from 51.6)
- ZEW Economic Sentiment (Eurozone): Drops to 14.2 (from 39.8)
Confidence has fallen sharply, reflecting concerns over weakening manufacturing and sluggish credit demand in the bloc.
- Canada CPI (Mar) – Due 12:30 GMT:
- Core CPI YoY: Expected 2.7%
- Headline CPI YoY: Seen at 2.6%
Inflation is expected to cool modestly, reinforcing expectations that the BoC may stay on hold for now.
- US NY Empire State Manufacturing (Apr):
- Forecast: -12.4 (previous: -20)
While still deep in negative territory, an improvement would support hopes for stabilisation in U.S. manufacturing.
- Forecast: -12.4 (previous: -20)
Commodities
- Crude Oil:
WTI: $61.94 (+0.67%)
Brent: $65.32 (+0.68%)
Oil prices are climbing for a fourth straight session, supported by geopolitical risks and expectations of tighter inventories.
- Gold:
$3,221.46 (+0.28%)
Gold remains well bid, continuing to benefit from dollar weakness and market hedging against inflation and geopolitical risk.
- Silver:
$32.35 (+0.15%)
Silver is also gaining, up more than 9% on the week, lifted by momentum across the precious metals complex.
Currency Movements
- EUR/USD – The euro is trading at 1.1346, down 0.04%. After strong recent gains, EUR/USD is consolidating as markets assess eurozone data weakness and the path for ECB policy.
- GBP/USD – Sterling holds firm at 1.3201, up 0.09%, as the UK labour market shows resilience. The GBP/USD exchange rate is up more than 5% year-to-date, supported by steady domestic data and broad USD softness.
- AUD/USD – The Aussie dollar is stronger at 0.6371, up 0.75%. The AUD/USD pair is climbing with commodities and on the back of improving risk sentiment.
- NZD/USD – The kiwi is also firm, with NZD/USD up 0.48% to 0.5916. The New Zealand dollar continues to benefit from rising risk appetite and strong technical momentum.
- USD/JPY – The yen is under modest pressure, with USD/JPY up 0.23% to 143.45. However, it remains near monthly lows as falling U.S. yields favour the Japanese currency overall.
- USD/CHF – The Swiss franc is retreating slightly, with USD/CHF up 0.29% to 0.8175, though the pair remains in a broader downtrend driven by safe-haven flows.
- USD/CAD – The loonie is little changed at 1.3863, down 0.09%, ahead of the Canadian CPI release. The USD/CAD pair is down nearly 3% in the past month, tracking oil and inflation expectations.
- USD/MXN – The peso remains strong, with USD/MXN down 0.12% to 20.06. The Mexican peso continues to outperform among EMs, benefiting from rate differentials and fiscal stability.
- USD/INR – The Indian rupee is gaining slightly, with USD/INR down 0.37% to 85.72, supported by steady capital flows and a broadly weaker greenback.
- USD/CNY – The yuan is flat, trading at 7.3170, as traders wait for more clarity on China’s growth outlook and potential stimulus signals.
Market Outlook
With labour market data out of the UK and soft sentiment indicators from Europe, attention now shifts to North American inflation and central bank guidance. A cooler-than-expected CPI print from Canada could push the loonie higher, while markets will closely watch Fed commentary ahead of Chair Powell’s remarks tomorrow. The dollar remains under broad pressure, and gold continues to shine as uncertainty lingers over inflation and growth trajectories.