Dollar Drifts Lower Ahead of Fed Speeches
Markets are off to a quiet start to the week as traders await a wave of speeches from U.S. Federal Reserve officials. Talk from Fed members Waller, Harker, and Bostic could give fresh insight into interest rate direction following last week’s mixed inflation signals. Meanwhile, attention is also on the UK’s consumer outlook, with BRC retail sales figures due late in the day. The U.S. dollar continues to lose ground against most major currencies, while gold consolidates near all-time highs and oil trades steady.
Key Events – Monday, April 14
- Fed Speeches (Waller, Harker, Bostic):
With no major data out today, markets are looking to central bank commentary to gauge the Fed’s next move. Officials may address sticky inflation and how recent PPI and CPI data affect the case for rate cuts. - UK BRC Retail Sales (23:01 GMT):
The British Retail Consortium’s like-for-like sales data for March is expected to ease to 0.5% YoY, down from February’s 0.9%. The figure will offer a snapshot of UK consumer resilience heading into Q2.
Commodities
$32.05 (-0.67%)
Silver is slipping after last week’s rally. Despite the dip, it remains up over 10% year-on-year.
Crude Oil:
WTI: $61.54 (+0.07%)
Brent: $64.83 (+0.10%)
Oil prices are flat in early trade. Brent remains under pressure amid sluggish demand and geopolitical uncertainty, though a modest weekly gain points to some stabilisation.
Gold:
$3,233.79 (-0.09%)
Gold remains elevated after recent record highs. While off slightly today, it’s still up over 23% year-to-date, with strong support from safe-haven demand and dollar weakness.
Silver:
Currency Movements
- EUR/USD – The euro continues its rally, trading at 1.1407, up 0.57%. The EUR/USD pair has now gained over 4.5% in a week, driven by U.S. dollar weakness and firm Eurozone inflation data.
- GBP/USD – Sterling is stronger at 1.3158, rising 0.59% on the day. The GBP/USD exchange rate is now up over 5% this year, as traders await UK retail figures and reassess the outlook for BoE rate cuts.
- AUD/USD – The Australian dollar is firmer at 0.6313, gaining 0.37%. The AUD/USD pair is tracking commodities and a broader shift away from the dollar, though weak Chinese growth remains a drag.
- NZD/USD – The New Zealand dollar is climbing, up 0.66% to 0.5863. The NZD/USD exchange rate has rallied 6% this month, as risk sentiment improves.
- USD/JPY – The yen is gaining ground, with USD/JPY down 0.70% to 142.51. The pair has now dropped over 3.5% this week, as falling U.S. yields and safe-haven flows lift the Japanese currency.
- USD/CHF – The Swiss franc continues to strengthen, with USD/CHF slipping 0.13% to 0.8140. The pair is now down over 10% YTD, as traders favour lower-yielding safe havens.
- USD/CAD – The Canadian dollar is holding firm, with USD/CAD down 0.14% at 1.3856. The loonie is supported by a slight bounce in oil and broader USD softness.
- USD/MXN – The peso is gaining, with USD/MXN down 0.42% to 20.23. The Mexican peso remains one of the top EM performers despite global volatility.
- USD/INR – The rupee is also firmer, with USD/INR down 0.17% to 85.94, helped by foreign inflows and steady energy prices.
- USD/CNY – The Chinese yuan is weakening, with USD/CNY up 0.33% to 7.308. Markets remain cautious on China’s growth outlook, with limited signs of new policy stimulus.
Market Outlook
With no major data scheduled today, the focus will be on central bank signals. The dollar remains under pressure as traders grow more confident that rate cuts could begin later this year. If today’s Fed speakers stick to a cautious tone, expect gold and risk assets to stay bid while the dollar continues to drift. All eyes also remain on tomorrow’s U.S. retail sales for the next catalyst.