Global PMIs Disappoint, U.S. Next
Daily Currency Update
Markets are reacting to the latest Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data, from the U.S., UK, and Eurozone. The data points to slowing business activity across major economies, reinforcing concerns around weaker global demand. Today, focus turns to U.S. durable goods orders, jobless claims, and housing figures, with central bank speakers also on deck.
Key Developments
- U.S. Composite PMI: Fell to 51.2 in April, down from 53.5, its lowest in over a year.
- UK Composite PMI: Dropped to 48.2, indicating contraction for the first time in 18 months.
- Eurozone Composite PMI: Softened to 50.1, with Germany and France both showing weakness.
- Durable Goods Orders (Mar): Forecast at +2.0%, after February’s 1.0% gain.
- Initial Jobless Claims: Expected at 221K, slightly above last week’s 215K.
- U.S. Existing Home Sales (Mar): Anticipated to decline 3.0%, compared to a 4.2% rise previously.
- Speeches today: ECB’s Lane, BoE’s Lombardelli, and Fed’s Kashkari may all influence direction.
- UK GfK Consumer Confidence is due late tonight, with sentiment expected to remain negative.
Commodities
- Oil: Brent eased 0.16% to $66.01, while WTI fell 0.20% to $62.15.
- Gold: Rose 0.26% to $3,325.01, as investors leaned defensive.
- Silver: Down 0.76% to $33.37, reflecting volatility in industrial metals.
Expected Currency Ranges
EUR/USD: 1.1285 – 1.1365 ▼
The euro remains heavy post-PMI. A stronger U.S. durable goods reading could cap any upside.
GBP/USD: 1.3225 – 1.3315 ▬
Sterling is consolidating post-data. Speeches from BoE officials and confidence data could widen the range.
AUD/USD: 0.6315 – 0.6385 ▼
The Aussie is under pressure from weaker commodities. Key resistance sits near 0.6390.
NZD/USD: 0.5910 – 0.5975 ▼
The Kiwi is mirroring Aussie softness. Trade remains narrow unless sentiment shifts.
USD/JPY: 141.95 – 143.30 ▬
The pair remains reactive to yields. Beige Book takeaways and Kashkari’s speech could spark movement later.
USD/CAD: 1.3840 – 1.3905 ▬
Oil is steady but not enough to push CAD further. Watch for U.S. data impact on both legs.
USD/CHF: 0.8250 – 0.8325 ▼
The franc may stay firm if gold strengthens. Dollar recovery could push back above 0.83.
USD/MXN: 19.5800 – 19.6600 ▼
Peso strength remains in place. The pair is struggling to hold any breakouts above 19.65.
USD/INR: 85.30 – 85.60 ▬
The rupee is range-bound, tracking broader dollar tone. Large moves are unlikely without external triggers.
Market Outlook
The PMI figures released this week highlight growing pressure on global growth. As U.S. data takes centre stage today, markets are looking for signs of resilience in manufacturing and labour. Any downside surprise could weigh further on the dollar, while hawkish tones from Fed or ECB speakers may shift sentiment into the close.