Oil climbs, traders eye PMI wave
Daily Currency Update
It’s a big day for markets as attention turns to a full slate of PMI data from the eurozone, UK, and US. Early moves have been limited, with traders waiting for clearer signals on how economic activity is holding up in April.
Oil remains the standout story. Prices continue to rise, driven by tighter supply expectations and fresh sanctions on Iran. Brent has pushed above $68 per barrel for the first time in over a week, while WTI is also higher, adding pressure on energy-importing currencies.
Gold has pulled back after a strong run, while silver has ticked higher. The broader market tone is cautious but steady, with currency moves reflecting that.
Key Events
- PMI data for the eurozone, UK, and US will be released throughout the day.
Traders expect marginal declines in both manufacturing and services sectors. - Several central bank officials are due to speak, including:
- BoE’s Pill and Bailey
- Fed’s Goolsbee, Musalem, and Waller
- ECB’s Lane, Villeroy, and Cipollone
- The Fed’s Beige Book is scheduled for release this evening, offering insight into regional U.S. economic conditions.
- U.S. New Home Sales data is expected at 14:00, forecasted to slow to 1.8% month-on-month.
Commodities
- Oil prices continued their climb. Brent rose to $68.46 (+1.50%) and WTI to $64.71 (+1.64%), driven by tighter supply expectations and fresh U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports.
- Gold dropped 1.01% to $3,302.64, pulling back from recent highs as investors await central bank guidance.
- Silver gained 0.88%, trading at $32.79, boosted by ongoing demand for industrial metals.
Expected Currency Ranges
EUR/USD: 1.1345 – 1.1435 ▼
Markets are cautious ahead of PMI data. A soft services read could pressure the euro further.
GBP/USD: 1.3280 – 1.3385 ▬
Sterling is in wait-and-see mode. Comments from the BoE and PMI figures could tilt the bias.
AUD/USD: 0.6385 – 0.6465 ▲
Supported by commodities and risk sentiment. Resistance sits just below 0.6470 for now.
NZD/USD: 0.5965 – 0.6025 ▲
Gains are likely to track Aussie moves. Stronger resistance sits closer to 0.6050.
USD/JPY: 140.90 – 142.40 ▬
The pair is stable above 141, with traders eyeing Fed commentary before committing further.
USD/CAD: 1.3760 – 1.3845 ▬
Loonie is anchored by oil but lacks a catalyst. Breakout could come after Thursday’s data.
USD/CHF: 0.8180 – 0.8255 ▲
Dollar strength and softer gold prices are supporting upside in this pair.
USD/MXN: 19.4700 – 19.6200 ▼
The peso remains firm, though volatility could pick up if global sentiment turns.
USD/INR: 85.15 – 85.55 ▬
Rupee is range-bound with no strong local drivers. Flows are keeping it steady for now.
Market Outlook
Today’s PMI data will shape the near-term outlook for growth across major economies. With markets still sensitive to rate expectations, attention will turn to how central banks interpret slowing trends. Volatility may increase later as the Beige Book and Fed speeches offer fresh policy clues.