Data Day for UK and US
Daily Currency Update
Markets are quiet heading into the final trading day of the week. Attention turns to a fresh round of retail and consumer sentiment data from the UK, Canada, and the U.S. With global growth concerns still lingering after weak PMI figures earlier this week, today’s data may shape expectations into month-end.
Key Events Today
- UK Retail Sales (Mar) due shortly. Analysts expect a 0.4% monthly decline, with year-on-year growth at 1.8%, softening from last month’s stronger figures.
- Canadian Retail Sales (Feb) expected to come in flat. The core reading (ex-autos) is also forecast at -0.4%.
- U.S. University of Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations are due this afternoon. Markets will be watching closely for any shift in consumer outlook or inflation forecasts.
- BoE’s Greene is scheduled to speak this evening, which could provide some colour ahead of next week’s policy expectations.
Commodities
- Oil prices have edged up this morning, with Brent at $66.86 and WTI at $63.09. Both benchmarks are set to close the week slightly higher, although overall momentum remains limited by demand concerns and ongoing geopolitical risk. The Canadian dollar is holding stable in tandem with oil’s modest rise.
- Gold has pulled back sharply this morning, trading at $3,288.85 — down 1.79% on the day and 4.2% on the week. The drop reflects weaker safe-haven demand and a slightly firmer U.S. dollar.
- Silver is also lower at $33.33, falling 0.84% as industrial demand signals remain unclear.
- Gold’s weakness has undercut support for the Swiss franc, while steady oil and metals pricing is helping to cushion commodity-linked currencies like AUD and CAD.
Expected Currency Ranges
EUR/USD: 1.1275 – 1.1345 ▼
The euro is drifting lower ahead of U.S. sentiment data. Dollar strength keeps rallies capped.
GBP/USD: 1.3240 – 1.3325 ▼
Sterling is under mild pressure. Retail sales figures due shortly could dictate direction.
AUD/USD: 0.6360 – 0.6420 ▬
Aussie holds in a narrow range. Gains are limited by weaker metals and quiet risk tone.
NZD/USD: 0.5935 – 0.5990 ▼
The Kiwi continues to track risk sentiment. No major local drivers into the weekend.
USD/JPY: 143.00 – 144.40 ▲
Yen remains weak with yields steady. U.S. data later could push the pair to test recent highs.
USD/CHF: 0.8290 – 0.8365 ▲
Gold’s slide weighs on the franc. Dollar strength could keep upward momentum in play.
USD/CAD: 1.3845 – 1.3910 ▬
CAD is stable for now. Retail sales due shortly may provide the catalyst for a move.
USD/MXN: 19.5900 – 19.6800 ▬
Peso still trading within tight bands. Oil steadiness supports the floor but upside remains capped.
USD/INR: 85.45 – 85.75 ▬
Rupee is range-bound. Intraday direction will mostly follow broader dollar positioning.
Market Outlook
With no major surprises so far this week, today’s data could still move the needle. A stronger U.S. sentiment or inflation read might give the dollar a final lift, while softer UK or Canadian retail figures could see GBP and CAD under pressure into the weekend.