Big Data Day: U.S. GDP, Inflation in Focus
Markets are steady but cautious as investors brace for a heavy slate of U.S. data releases including GDP, jobless claims, and inflation prints. Commodities remain supported, with gold pushing higher and oil holding recent gains. Currency markets show mixed direction as traders weigh economic signals and central bank commentary.
Key Data Out Today – Thursday, March 27
- U.S. Q4 GDP (Final): At 12:30 GMT, traders await the final read on U.S. Q4 GDP, expected to hold at 2.3% annualized, with the GDP Price Index forecast at 2.4%. Any deviation could shift growth expectations and Fed outlooks.
- Core PCE (Q4) & PCE Prices: Also due at 12:30 GMT, these are the Fed’s preferred inflation metrics, expected at 2.7% and 2.4% QoQ, respectively. A beat could reinforce the Fed’s cautious stance on cuts.
- Initial Jobless Claims: Weekly claims expected to rise slightly to 225K from 223K. No major surprises expected, but it will still guide labor market sentiment.
- Pending Home Sales (Feb): Later at 14:00 GMT, consensus expects a 1.5% MoM rebound following a sharp -4.6% drop in January.
- Central Bank Speakers: ECB’s De Guindos, Villeroy, Schnabel, and President Lagarde are all on deck today, alongside Fed’s Barkin and BoE’s Dhingra. Any policy signals will be closely watched.
Commodities
- Oil: Crude prices are marginally lower this morning. WTI is at $69.43 (-0.32%), while Brent trades at $73.57(-0.30%). While oil is up over the week, it’s still down over 15% YoY. Markets are digesting mixed signals: geopolitical tension and U.S. export restrictions provide upside pressure, while sluggish demand and economic uncertainty weigh on sentiment.
- Gold & Silver: Gold is climbing again, now at $3,035.93 (+0.48%), driven by cautious risk sentiment and persistent inflation concerns. Silver is also higher at $33.70 (+0.14%), supported by safe-haven demand and strong industrial use expectations. Gold has gained 15.68% YTD and nearly 36% YoY, continuing its breakout run.
Currency Movements
- EUR/USD is slightly higher at 1.0756 (+0.02%), stabilizing after recent weakness. Traders are watching today’s ECB commentary for forward guidance.
- GBP/USD is up at 1.2907 (+0.14%), recovering after Wednesday’s inflation-driven slide. Traders are digesting BoE Dhingra’s remarks amid debate on timing of UK rate cuts.
- AUD/USD rose to 0.6306 (+0.12%) and NZD/USD to 0.5739 (+0.19%) – both risk-sensitive currencies gaining modestly on a softer dollar and some optimism around global growth.
- USD/JPY is steady at 150.54 (-0.02%). The pair remains elevated as the Bank of Japan maintains its ultra-loose stance, while U.S. yields keep the dollar supported.
- USD/CNY edged lower to 7.2739 (-0.08%), reflecting modest yuan strength despite ongoing concerns about Chinese economic softness.
- USD/CHF ticked up to 0.8844 (+0.06%). The franc has weakened slightly this week as risk appetite improves, though remains firm on longer-term trends.
- USD/CAD climbed to 1.4296 (+0.21%) as the loonie lags oil, showing relative underperformance despite stable energy prices.
- USD/MXN jumped to 20.2244 (+0.60%), pulling back from recent peso strength as the dollar regains ground and emerging market sentiment wobbles.
- USD/INR fell to 85.53 (-0.23%), as the rupee benefits from strong capital flows and improving macro data.
Market Outlook
Traders are squarely focused on the 12:30 GMT data cluster out of the U.S., which will likely set the tone into the weekend. A hotter-than-expected Core PCE could derail hopes for Fed rate cuts in the first half of 2025, while soft GDP could raise growth concerns. Commodity markets are supported but cautious, with gold extending gains as traders seek shelter.
FX markets are treading water but poised for movement post-data. With several central bank speeches on deck, volatility could rise through the U.S. session.
Risk sentiment remains fragile—eyes are on inflation, growth, and policy clarity.