ADP Jobs, Factory Orders and Tariff Risk in Focus
Markets open Wednesday steady but watchful ahead of the U.S. ADP Employment Report and Factory Orders, both due this afternoon. Consensus expects 105K jobs added in March, up from 77K in February — a key lead-in to Friday’s nonfarm payrolls. Meanwhile, geopolitical attention turns to potential U.S. trade tariffs linked to Liberation Day, expected later today. With gold hovering near record highs and oil flat, sentiment remains cautious amid mixed economic signals.
Key Data and Events – Wednesday, April 2
Fed & ECB Speakers:
Comments from Fed’s Kugler and ECB’s Schnabel and Lane could guide expectations around monetary policy, especially after softer recent inflation prints in the U.S. and Eurozone.
ADP Employment Change (Mar):
Forecast at 105K vs. previous 77K, the ADP print is a closely watched but imperfect preview of Friday’s official U.S. jobs data. A miss could heighten recession fears; a beat may revive Fed hawkishness.
U.S. Factory Orders (Feb):
Expected to rise 0.5% MoM, after January’s sharp 1.7% drop. A key indicator of manufacturing strength and corporate investment appetite.
U.S. Liberation Day Tariff Announcement (19:00 GMT):
Traders are on alert for possible new U.S. trade measures. Any signs of tariff escalation could hit risk sentiment, particularly in emerging markets and commodities.
Commodities
- Gold: Trading at $3,116.23 (+0.03%), gold remains elevated after touching record highs this week. The metal continues to benefit from safe-haven flows, central bank demand, and falling real yields.
- Silver: Firmer at $33.79 (+0.37%), silver is tracking gold but also supported by industrial demand optimism heading into Q2.
- Oil: WTI is at $71.19 (-0.01%) and Brent at $74.51 (+0.02%). Crude is flat on the day but has gained around 4%over the past month. Market focus is on OPEC+ compliance and ongoing geopolitical supply risks.
Currency Movements
- EUR/USD at 1.0792 (-0.01%): Euro is flat as traders await further ECB signals. Disinflation and soft data have capped upside for now.
- GBP/USD at 1.2914 (-0.07%): Sterling is modestly lower after recent strength. Markets eye Friday’s UK PMI for fresh momentum.
- AUD/USD at 0.6303 (+0.39%) and NZD/USD at 0.5731 (+0.63%): Both Antipodean currencies are firmer, riding higher on risk appetite and recovering commodity prices.
- USD/JPY at 149.93 (+0.22%): Yen weakens as U.S. yields rise slightly, though the pair remains below recent highs amid talk of future BoJ policy normalization.
- USD/CNY at 7.2790 (-0.01%): Yuan trades in a tight range as China stabilizes financial conditions with a focus on supporting growth.
- USD/CHF at 0.8842 (+0.04%): Franc remains weak as safe-haven flows rotate toward gold.
- USD/CAD at 1.4298 (-0.03%): Loonie holds recent gains as oil prices remain steady and Canada’s PMI data looms.
- USD/MXN at 20.34 (-0.06%): Peso is pulling back slightly but remains one of the strongest performers YTD on rate differentials and carry trades.
- USD/INR at 85.48 (-0.12%): Rupee remains firm, benefiting from foreign inflows and positive macro momentum in India.
Market Outlook
Today’s focus is squarely on U.S. labor and manufacturing data. If the ADP report surprises to the upside and factory orders rebound as forecast, we could see renewed dollar strength and rate hike fears resurface. On the flip side, a miss on either could bolster expectations for a mid-year Fed pivot.
Geopolitical risks are also in play, with investors watching closely for any trade developments tied to U.S. Liberation Day. A fresh round of tariffs could hit sentiment, especially in risk-sensitive and emerging market assets.
Volatility may pick up into the U.S. session, with macro data and policy chatter steering short-term moves across FX, commodities, and rates.