NFP Report and Powell Speech Steer Market Focus
Markets are focused on today’s (NFP) report, with March nonfarm payrolls expected at 135K, alongside updates on wage growth and unemployment. The data comes amid a sharp drop in oil prices and a pullback in gold and silver. Canadian labor figures are also due, and speeches from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other officials later today may influence how investors position into the weekend.
Key Data and Events – Friday, April 4
- U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar):
Forecast: 135K (previous: 151K)
Unemployment rate: 4.1% expected
Average hourly earnings: 0.3% MoM / 3.9% YoY
A softer report could support the case for Fed easing later this year, while stronger numbers would keep rate cuts on hold. - Canada Employment (Mar):
Forecasts point to a 12K job gain with unemployment rising slightly to 6.7%. Weakness here could weigh on the Canadian dollar, especially with oil under pressure. - Fed Speakers:
Chair Powell, along with Barr and Waller, are all scheduled this afternoon. Markets will watch for any change in tone following recent data and shifting inflation expectations.
Commodities
- Oil:
- WTI: $64.51 (-3.64% today, -6.88% this week)
- Brent: $67.70 (-3.48% today)
Oil continues to slide on softer demand signals and a broader shift away from risk. Prices are now down nearly 10% year-to-date, with both benchmarks off more than 25% YoY.
- Gold:
- $3,079.27 (-1.08%)
After a strong March, gold is under pressure as the dollar firms and real yields edge higher. The metal is still up over 17% YTD.
- $3,079.27 (-1.08%)
- Silver:
- $31.34 (-1.77%)
Silver continues to lag gold, with industrial demand concerns weighing on sentiment.
- $31.34 (-1.77%)
Currency Movements
- EUR/USD – The euro to U.S. dollar exchange rate is trading lower at 1.0996, down 0.50% on the day. The decline follows recent euro strength, with traders taking profit ahead of the U.S. jobs report. A stronger-than-expected payrolls print could push EUR/USD lower as Fed rate cut expectations shift.
- GBP/USD – The British pound to U.S. dollar rate has dropped sharply to 1.2982, a 0.90% decline. The selloff reflects broader risk aversion and falling commodity prices. The GBP/USD pair could see further volatility this afternoon depending on how U.S. labor data moves the dollar.
- AUD/USD – The Australian dollar to U.S. dollar exchange rate is under heavy pressure, falling 1.99% to 0.6203. Weakness in commodity markets, especially crude oil and silver, is dragging on the AUD/USD pair, which is also sensitive to global growth concerns.
- NZD/USD – The New Zealand dollar to U.S. dollar rate is also sharply lower, down 2.04% to 0.5684. Like the Aussie, the NZD/USD exchange rate is reacting to risk-off flows and softer commodity sentiment.
- USD/JPY – The U.S. dollar to Japanese yen exchange rate is trading at 146.34, up 0.20%. Yen weakness continues as traders favor the dollar ahead of today’s jobs data, although the USD/JPY pair remains below recent highs following last week’s slide.
- USD/CAD – The U.S. dollar to Canadian dollar exchange rate is up 0.30% at 1.4140, driven by falling oil prices and anticipation around Canada’s own employment figures today. A weaker Canadian jobs report could push the USD/CAD pair even higher.
- USD/CHF – The U.S. dollar to Swiss franc exchange rate is down 0.32% to 0.8564. The USD/CHF pair is being weighed down by safe-haven flows into the franc amid market volatility and a drop in yields.
- USD/MXN – The U.S. dollar to Mexican peso exchange rate is up 0.84%, trading around 20.11. The USD/MXN pair is rebounding after a strong first quarter for the peso, with higher U.S. yields and lower oil prices pressuring emerging market currencies.
- USD/INR – The U.S. dollar to Indian rupee exchange rate is slightly lower at 85.11, down 0.20%. The USD/INR pair remains range-bound, with steady capital flows into India keeping the rupee supported despite broader dollar strength.
Market Outlook
Today’s U.S. labor data will likely set the tone for the session. If jobs and wage growth miss expectations, traders may lean into rate cut bets for the second half of the year. But if the report shows strength, it could add weight to the Fed’s “wait and see” stance.
With oil sliding and metals cooling, commodities are signaling more caution around global growth. Currency markets are seeing pressure on high-beta and commodity-linked pairs, while defensive plays hold ground.
Fed Chair Powell’s remarks this afternoon could bring more clarity on how the central bank is reading recent data. Expect markets to stay reactive into the close.