UK Wage Growth Hits Two-Year Low
The UK’s jobless rate fell unexpectedly to 4.2 percent in the three-month period leading up to June from the previous 4.4 percent. This fall surprised economists who had predicted that the rate would not change or would go up a little. The drop in unemployment could mean that companies are now hiring at a much faster rate than projected. This is a probable sign of underlying resilience in the economy.
Wage growth has eased, but with the newest figure revealing a 5.4 percent increase in average earnings excluding bonuses, down from a previous 5.8 percent rise in the prior quarter. That is the smallest rate of wage growth since mid-2022 and matched forecasts, providing some welcome relief to the BoE, which had been concerned about inflationary pressures. (CityAM) (Office for National Statistics).
Major Currency Pairs
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EUR/USD: The Euro changes little against the US Dollar and hovers near 1.0950. Mixed signals from the Eurozone kept the pair swinging to and fro. Germany’s economic sentiment is showing signs of strain.
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GBP/USD: The pound is modestly higher after the UK’s positive jobs data, trading around 1.2783, with the surprise drop in unemployment giving a boost that would be tempered by slower wage growth for any large rally.
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USD/JPY: The yen trades near 147.30 per dollar, under pressure, as continuous economic challenges within Japan and a dovish Bank of Japan weigh on the currency, even as global yields show signs of easing.
Commodities
Oil: Oil prices are slightly up today, with Brent crude trading at around $86 per barrel. This comes amidst ongoing production cuts by OPEC and concerns over a potential slowdown in global demand, particularly from China.
Gold: Gold prices have seen a minor uptick, currently around $1,920 per ounce. The precious metal is benefiting from a dip in US Treasury yields and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, making it an attractive safe-haven asset for investors.
Political News:
On the political front, it’s likely the UK government will increasingly come under fire as Chancellor Rachel Reeves prepares to present a new budget later this year. Sentiment regarding the next moves by the Federal Reserve will remain unresolved until we focus more on hard data: retail sales numbers and housing market updates will be up next.
This combination of developments, economic and political, would tend to create an atmosphere of cautious optimism with markets responding to a mixture of encouraging news and some lingering uncertainties. Look for reports in the near future to provide additional guidance.