Eurozone Consumer Confidence Expected Steady, US Jobless Claims and GDP in Focus
First off, we’ve got the European Consumer Confidence Index for June coming out at 9:00 AM. The current forecast suggests that the index will stay at -14, which means that folks in the Eurozone are still feeling pretty pessimistic about the economy. Not the best news, but it’s important to keep an eye on these things.
Next up, at 12:30 PM, we’ll see the release of the US Initial Jobless Claims data for the week ending June 21. The consensus is that we’ll see around 236,000 claims, slightly lower than the expected 238,000. This suggests that the job market is holding steady, which is definitely a good thing.
Then, at 1:30 PM, we’ll get the scoop on US Durable Goods Orders for May. Last month, we saw a 0.7% increase, but this time around, the consensus and forecast are both pretty low, at 0% and 0.1% respectively. So it looks like there won’t be much growth happening there.
Lastly, also at 1:30 PM, we’ll get the final Q1 GDP Growth Rate for the US. The previous reading was at a solid 3.4%, but the consensus and forecast for this time are down to 1.3%. That’s a significant drop, signalling a slowdown in the economy.
Currency Trading Update – June 26th, 2024
EUR/USD: The Euro (EUR) is currently trading around 1.0690 against the USD. This shows that traders are playing it safe while waiting for the latest economic sentiment data from the Eurozone. In the past week, the EUR/USD pair has been bouncing between 1.0680 and 1.0740 (XE, Wise).).
GBP/USD: The British Pound (GBP) is sitting at around 1.2638 against the USD. Recent economic data from the UK and ongoing political developments, especially related to Brexit, are still influencing the movement of the Pound (XE, YCharts).
USD/JPY: The Japanese Yen (JPY) is currently trading around 160.37 per USD. The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy and the country’s trade deficit are important factors causing the Yen to weaken. Traders are keeping a close eye on Japan’s industrial production data for more clues (XE, YCharts).
AUD/USD: The Australian Dollar (AUD) is currently trading around 0.6645 against the USD. While improved commodity prices are giving it a bit of a boost, concerns about China’s economic slowdown are still weighing it down. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) recent minutes will be closely examined for any hints about future policies (XE, Yahoo Finance.)
Other Economic News:
U.S. Durable Goods Orders:
The latest data on durable goods orders in the U.S. shows a moderate increase, which indicates positive business investment levels. This information is crucial for getting a sense of the overall economic outlook and business sentiment (TradingView).
Eurozone Consumer Confidence:
We expect to see a slight improvement in the Eurozone consumer confidence data. This is important for assessing the region’s economic recovery, especially considering concerns about inflation. If consumers are feeling positive, it could signal a stronger economic outlook for the Eurozone (TradingView).
Japan Industrial Production:
We’re expecting to see a slight increase in Japan’s industrial production data. This will be vital for evaluating the health of Japan’s manufacturing sector, considering the disruptions in global supply chains and domestic economic challenges. Keep an eye on this data for insights into Japan’s economy (TradingView).
Global Oil Prices:
Oil prices are experiencing some minor fluctuations, with Brent crude hovering around $71 per barrel. Market analysts are closely monitoring OPEC+ for any signs of production adjustments. Geopolitical tensions and supply chain issues are still playing a significant role in shaping the energy market (Bloomberg).
To sum it up, the forex markets are currently navigating through a mix of economic data releases and signals from central banks. The USD remains strong, while other major currencies are being influenced by factors specific to their respective regions. As the week progresses, traders will closely watch durable goods orders, consumer confidence indices, and industrial production data to get a better sense of where currency movements are headed. Stay tuned for more updates as the economic landscape evolves.