Eurozone Faces Headwinds, UK & US Show Mixed Signals
Eurozone PMIs: The HCOB Composite PMI for August is forecasted to come in at 50.1, slightly lower than July’s 50.2. The Manufacturing PMI is expected to hold steady at 45.8, while the Services PMI is projected to drop slightly to 51.9 from 52.0. This suggests that while the service sector may stay stable, manufacturing could continue to face headwinds.
UK PMIs: The S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI for August is anticipated to come in at 52.9, a marginal increase from July’s 52.8. The Manufacturing PMI is expected to remain unchanged at 52.1, and the Services PMI is projected to edge up to 52.8 from 52.5, indicating a slight improvement in business activity.
U.S. PMIs: The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for August is forecasted to remain at 49.6, indicating a slight contraction in the manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, the Services PMI is expected to decrease from 55.0 to 54.0, which might reflect a cooling in service sector growth.
Retail Sales (NZD): New Zealand’s Retail Sales for Q2 are anticipated to show a drop of 1%. This reverses the earlier quarter’s 0.5% gain. This could signal a slowdown in consumer spending.
Major Currency Pairs
[exchange-rates_badge color=”#003E80EB” amount=”1″ base_currency=”EUR” flag_type=”rectangular” decimals=”4″ base_show=”on” code=”on” symbol=”on” after=”on” id=”1714229471″ currency_list=”USD”]
EUR/USD: The euro is likely to stay under pressure if the PMI data disappoints. The recent performance of the euro has been volatile, and weaker-than-expected PMI figures could exacerbate this trend. As of the latest update, EUR/USD is trading around 1.0900.
[exchange-rates_badge color=”#003E80EB” amount=”1″ base_currency=”GBP” flag_type=”rectangular” decimals=”4″ base_show=”on” code=”on” symbol=”on” after=”on” id=”1714229471″ currency_list=”USD”]
GBP/USD: The pound could gain some strength if the UK PMI data beats expectations. With the Composite PMI projected to improve slightly, GBP/USD is now trading near 1.2850, reflecting cautious optimism in the market.
[exchange-rates_badge color=”#003E80EB” amount=”1″ base_currency=”USD” flag_type=”rectangular” decimals=”4″ base_show=”on” code=”on” symbol=”on” after=”on” id=”1714229471″ currency_list=”JPY”]
USD/JPY: The yen may see some movement depending on U.S. economic data and broader market sentiment. USD/JPY is trading around 144.00, influenced by global risk appetite and U.S. economic outlook.
[exchange-rates_badge color=”#003E80EB” amount=”1″ base_currency=”AUD” flag_type=”rectangular” decimals=”4″ base_show=”on” code=”on” symbol=”on” after=”on” id=”1714229471″ currency_list=”USD”]
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar’s performance is likely to hinge on broader market trends and commodity prices. AUD/USD is trading around 0.6450, reflecting ongoing uncertainty in global markets.
[exchange-rates_badge color=”#003E80EB” amount=”1″ base_currency=”NZD” flag_type=”rectangular” decimals=”4″ base_show=”on” code=”on” symbol=”on” after=”on” id=”1714229471″ currency_list=”USD”]
NZD/USD: Given the anticipated drop in New Zealand’s retail sales, the kiwi may weaken. NZD/USD is trading near 0.5850, with the retail sales data potentially weighing on its performance.
Commodities:
- Crude Oil: Brent crude is trading at $76.07 per barrel, with a slight increase of 0.02% today. In contrast, WTI crude is at $71.88 per barrel, down by 0.07%. Oil prices are influenced by ongoing geopolitical and economic factors.
- Gold: Gold is priced at $2,507.20 per ounce, showing a minor 0.22% decrease. Despite this, gold remains strong with a 30.94% increase year-over-year, reflecting its status as a safe haven.
- Silver: Silver is trading at $29.52 per ounce, with a 0.28% decline today. The metal has seen a 21.34% rise over the past year, showing continued investor interest.
Political News:
US: The Jackson Hole Symposium starts today. No specific remarks have been made yet. Any future comments from Federal Reserve officials may impact market expectations and the USD.
UK: There are no significant new political developments today. The market remains attentive to any potential shifts in domestic policy or economic measures.