Market Comment: November 21, 2024
Today’s market focus is on the data from the U.S. and Europe, alongside a slew of speeches from key central banks, including the Fed, ECB, and BoE. The U.S. jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey will be closely watched for insights into the U.S. economy. On top of that, European consumer confidence data may shift the euro.
Key Data Out Today
- 06:20 USD: Fed’s Williams speech
- 08:30 EUR: ECB’s Cipollone speech
- 13:30 USD: Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 15) – Expected: 220K, Previous: 217K
- 13:30 USD: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Nov) – Expected: 8, Previous: 10.3
- 14:00 GBP: BoE’s Mann speech
- 15:00 EUR: Consumer Confidence (Nov, Preliminary)
- 15:00 USD: Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) (Oct)
- 17:25 USD: Fed’s Goolsbee speech
- Various: Additional speeches from ECB and Fed officials throughout the day
Energy & Precious Metals
- Crude Oil: Trades higher at $69.257, up 0.74%, supported by tightening supplies and stable demand.
- Brent Oil: At $73.255, up 0.61%, reflecting broader bullish sentiment in energy markets.
- Gold: rose 0.33% to $2661.01/oz, supported by a softer dollar and inflation concerns.
- Silver: is up 1.20%, trading at $31.287/oz, benefiting from increased industrial demand and broader commodity strength.
Currency Movements
EUR/USD
- The euro remains subdued, trading near 1.05360, down 0.09% on the day. Eurozone consumer confidence data later in the day may provide some direction. However, recent speeches from ECB officials have not sparked major moves.
GBP/USD
- The pound trades slightly lower at 1.26429, down 0.09% on the day. BoE’s Mann’s comments later could offer clues on the central bank’s stance, especially following yesterday’s hotter UK CPI data.
AUD/USD
- The Australian dollar holds steady at 0.65116, showing no significant movement. It’s gaining modest support from stable risk sentiment in commodities.
NZD/USD
- The kiwi fell 0.25% to 0.58652, reflecting broader risk aversion. Market participants remain cautious ahead of U.S. data releases.
USD/JPY
- The yen strengthened slightly to 155.002, down 0.18%. A weaker dollar and risk-off sentiment are providing some support to the Japanese currency.
USD/CNY
- The yuan trades at 7.24662, showing minor fluctuations. Market focus remains on China’s economic recovery, though today’s data calendar is light for the region.
USD/CHF
- The franc remains flat at 0.88344, with minimal movement as markets await further cues from Fed speakers.
USD/CAD
- The loonie trades at 1.39711, edging 0.02% higher. Stable oil prices continue to offer support, though traders await updates on Canadian inflation trends.
USD/MXN
- The peso is relatively unchanged at 20.2775, up 0.02%. Mexico’s inflation and central bank commentary will likely influence the currency moving forward.
USD/INR
- The rupee is down 0.10% to 84.4655, reflecting broader dollar strength. Market participants are eyeing U.S. data for further cues.
Things to Keep a Watch On:
- U.S. Jobless Claims and Manufacturing Data
- The Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 15) and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Nov) are key releases today. These will provide insights into the U.S. labor market and manufacturing sector, potentially influencing USD performance.
- Central Bank Speeches
- Speeches from Fed officials may offer clues about the Fed’s policy outlook. These officials include Williams, Goolsbee, and Hammack. This is especially relevant with mixed signals on inflation and growth.
- ECB’s Cipollone, Elderson, and Lane are also scheduled to speak, which could shape expectations around eurozone monetary policy.
- BoE’s Mann is likely to provide commentary on inflation following the UK’s higher-than-expected CPI data yesterday.
- Eurozone Consumer Confidence
- The preliminary Consumer Confidence (Nov) data for the eurozone will be closely monitored. Analysts will look for signs of economic resilience or further weakness.
- U.S. Housing Market Data
- The Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) for October will offer clues about the health of the U.S. housing market amidst higher interest rates.
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