Market Comment: November 25, 2024
This Monday, markets opened with a flurry of data releases and notable price movements across major asset classes. The German IFO Business Climate Index, Current Assessment, and Expectations are set for release, providing fresh insights into Eurozone sentiment. Key speeches from ECB’s Lane and German Bundesbank President Nagel are expected later. Energy prices show mixed performance, while metals like gold and silver are sliding after recent rallies. Currency markets are experiencing moderate corrections as traders digest the latest economic updates.
Key Data Out Today
- German IFO Business Climate (Nov): Forecasted at 86, previous reading 86.5.
- German IFO Current Assessment (Nov): Consensus at 85.4, slightly below the prior 85.7.
- German IFO Expectations (Nov): Anticipated at 87, slightly lower than the previous 87.3.
- BoE Speeches: Lombardelli (09:00) and Dhingra (10:30) expected to provide insights into UK monetary policy.
- ECB Speech: Chief Economist Lane (16:30) and German Bundesbank President Nagel (17:30) will address markets later.
Energy & Precious Metals
- Crude Oil prices eased by 1.04%, with WTI at $70.50, though still up 1.93% weekly.
- Brent fell 0.97% to $74.44, maintaining its upward momentum for the month (+4.82%).
- Gold dropped 1.77% to $2,667.84 per ounce, facing pressure from a stronger dollar and profit-taking.
- Silver declined 1.97% to $30.72, weighed by similar headwinds. Both remain significantly up year-to-date, with gold up 29% and silver up 29.24%.
Currency Movements
EUR/USD
- EUR/USD: Rebounded 0.45%, trading at 1.0464 as traders await the German IFO data and ECB speeches. The euro remains under pressure, down 1.22% weekly and 3.25% monthly.
GBP/USD
- GBP/USD: Rose 0.41% to 1.2583, recovering from last week’s weakness. Focus remains on BoE speakers today.
AUD/USD and NZD/USD
- AUD/USD and NZD/USD: Both currencies edged higher, with AUD/USD up 0.20% to 0.6513 and NZD/USD climbing 0.37% to 0.5853. Gains are limited by subdued risk sentiment globally.
USD/JPY
- USD/JPY: The yen strengthened slightly, with USD/JPY down 0.34% at 154.19, reflecting safe-haven flows and profit-taking.
USD/CNY
- USD/CNY: The yuan strengthened, with USD/CNY down 0.12% to 7.2496, supported by optimism around China’s recent economic stabilization efforts.
USD/CHF
- USD/CHF: Fell 0.39% to 0.8905, as the Swiss franc gained traction amidst broader dollar weakness.
USD/CAD
- USD/CAD: Canadian dollar held steady, with USD/CAD down 0.13% at 1.3958, buoyed by crude oil prices.
USD/MXN and USD/INR
- USD/MXN and USD/INR: Both currencies showed resilience, with USD/MXN down 0.37% at 20.36 and USD/INR easing 0.14% to 84.31, despite slight dollar weakening.
Things to Keep a Watch On:
- German IFO Data (09:00 GMT): Results could shape euro movements, especially if numbers deviate from forecasts.
- ECB Speeches: Lane and Nagel’s comments later today may provide insights into the Eurozone’s monetary policy outlook.
- BoE Speeches: Lombardelli and Dhingra are expected to discuss the UK’s inflation and growth challenges.
- Natural Gas Prices: Continued upward pressure due to winter demand could ripple across energy markets.
- Gold and Silver Trends: Further downside might indicate shifting sentiment in safe-haven assets.