Bailey Hints at Rate Cuts, OPEC and Job Data Focus
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey grabbed attention yesterday. He suggested up to four UK rate cuts might happen next year as inflation eases. The pound briefly dipped before recovering, showing cautious about the BoE’s approach.
Mixed data is also in focus today. Eurozone factory orders improved, while US jobless claims and Challenger job cuts give a glimpse into the labor market. As well as ongoing OPEC meeting is keeping traders watching oil prices, which have steadied after recent drops. Currency markets remain calm as everyone waits for retail sales data and more labor market updates.
Key Data Out Today
- German Factory Orders (07:00 GMT): Improved to 5.7% YoY, showing recovery, while MoM orders dropped by 1.5%.
- OPEC Meeting: Focus remains on supply management strategies to stabilize oil prices.
- Eurozone Retail Sales (10:00 GMT): Expected to contract by -0.3% MoM and grow 1.7% YoY, reflecting mixed consumer activity.
- US Job Data:
- Challenger Job Cuts (12:30 GMT): Figures will highlight corporate layoff trends.
- Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 GMT): Forecasted at 215K, marginally higher than the previous 213K.
- CAD Ivey PMI (15:00 GMT): Consensus at 52.2, indicating a potential slowdown in Canadian economic activity.
- BoE’s Greene Speech (17:00 GMT): Markets await updates on the UK’s monetary policy stance.
Energy & Precious Metals
- Crude Oil and Brent: WTI crude up 0.17% at $68.66, while Brent gained 0.15% to $72.42. Traders await OPEC announcements amid supply concerns.
- Gold: Flat at $2,647.73 per ounce, as traders focus on upcoming US job data.
- Silver: Held steady, up 0.13% to $31.28, supported by improving industrial demand.
Currency Movements
EUR/USD
- EUR/USD: Up 0.18% at 1.0531, supported by strong German factory orders, although Eurozone retail sales may dampen sentiment.
GBP/USD
- GBP/USD: Higher by 0.15% to 1.2720, buoyed by optimism surrounding BoE speeches later today.
AUD/USD
- AUD/USD: Gained 0.19% to 0.6443, supported by firm commodity prices.
NZD/USD
- NZD/USD: Up 0.13% to 0.5874, stabilizing after recent declines amidst improving risk sentiment.
USD/JPY
- USD/JPY: Down 0.40% to 149.99, as the yen strengthens on safe-haven demand.
USD/CNY
- USD/CNY: Steady at 7.2761, reflecting muted reaction to Chinese economic activity.
USD/CHF
- USD/CHF: Slightly lower by 0.04% to 0.8839, as the franc holds its ground.
USD/CAD
- USD/CAD: Flat at 1.4069, awaiting Canada’s Ivey PMI for direction.
USD/MXN
- USD/MXN: Lower by 0.11% to 20.27, with the peso benefitting from stabilizing sentiment in emerging markets.
USD/INR
- USD/INR: Little changed at 84.73, hovering near record lows as rupee weakness persists.
Things to Keep a Watch On:
- OPEC Meeting: Decisions on supply cuts or increases will directly impact oil price stability.
- US Jobless Claims (13:30 GMT): A key indicator of labor market health, which could influence the USD.
- Eurozone Retail Sales (10:00 GMT): Mixed expectations may drive EUR volatility.
- Canadian Ivey PMI (15:00 GMT): Key to understanding the economic momentum in Canada.
- BoE’s Greene Speech (17:00 GMT): Traders will look for comments on UK inflation and growth outlook.