UK GDP Disappoints: Q3 Growth Stagnates
Monday starts with disappointing GDP data from the UK, alongside data releases from the Eurozone and Canada. UK GDP figures for Q3 came in below expectations, raising concerns about economic momentum. Meanwhile, the markets are waiting for US Consumer Confidence data later today. This data will provide insights into sentiment heading into the holiday season.
Key Data Out Today
- UK GDP (Q3): QoQ growth stagnated at 0%, missing expectations of 0.1%. YoY growth slowed to 0.9%, below the forecast of 1%. This reflects ongoing challenges in the UK economy, with reduced consumer spending and industrial activity weighing on growth.
- Eurozone GDP (Q3): QoQ growth holds steady at 0.8%, matching forecasts, indicating moderate resilience across the bloc.
- Canada GDP (Oct): Due later, expected to show 0.1% MoM growth, reflecting steady economic expansion.
- US Consumer Confidence (Dec): Markets are watching this key sentiment gauge for potential signals on spending trends.
Energy & Precious Metals
Energy:
- Crude Oil: WTI up 0.50% to $69.81, while Brent gained 0.40% to $73.23, supported by stable demand forecasts.
- Natural Gas: Rose 4.22% to $3.91/MMBtu, driven by colder weather patterns boosting demand.
Precious Metals:
- Gold: Gained 0.33% to $2630.68/oz, supported by a softer dollar and cautious market sentiment.
- Silver: Up 0.70% to $29.71/oz, tracking gold’s performance as industrial demand stabilizes.
Currency Movements
EUR/USD
- EUR/USD: The Euro is trading at approximately 1.0435 against the U.S. Dollar, reflecting a slight increase of 0.01% from the previous day. This movement aligns with December’s historical trend, where EUR/USD has averaged a 1.23% gain, marking it as the most bullish month for this pair.
GBP/USD
- GBP/USD: The British Pound stands at around 1.2568 against the U.S. Dollar, showing a marginal decrease of 0.02% over the past 24 hours. Historically, December has been favorable for GBP/USD, with an average return of +0.49% since 1971.
AUD/USD
- AUD/USD: The Australian Dollar is trading near 0.6256 against the U.S. Dollar, up by 0.05% from the previous day. December typically sees bullish returns for AUD/USD, with an average gain of 0.66% over the month.
NZD/USD
- NZD/USD: The New Zealand Dollar is at approximately 0.5654 against the U.S. Dollar, reflecting a 0.04% increase in the last 24 hours. The pair has experienced a 10.57% decline year-to-date, indicating a challenging year for the Kiwi.
USD/JPY
- USD/JPY: The U.S. Dollar is trading at about 156.64 Japanese Yen, showing a 0.04% increase over the past day. December has historically been bearish for USD/JPY, with an average decline of -0.61%, the most significant average monthly drop over the past half-century.
USD/CNY
- USD/CNY: The U.S. Dollar stands at around 7.3049 Chinese Yuan, up by 0.15% from the previous day. This movement reflects ongoing concerns about China’s economic growth and its impact on the Yuan.
USD/CHF
- USD/CHF: The U.S. Dollar is trading near 0.8937 Swiss Francs, showing no significant change over the past 24 hours. The pair has appreciated by 6.20% year-to-date, indicating a stronger U.S. Dollar against the Swiss Franc throughout the year.
USD/CAD
- USD/CAD: The U.S. Dollar stands at approximately 1.4365 Canadian Dollars, up by 0.08% from the previous day. December has historically been a modestly bearish month for USD/CAD, with an average return of -0.02%.
USD/MXN
- USD/MXN: The U.S. Dollar is trading at about 20.0705 Mexican Pesos, reflecting a 0.04% decrease over the past 24 hours. The pair has risen by 18.38% year-to-date, highlighting significant Peso depreciation against the U.S. Dollar.
USD/INR
- USD/INR: The U.S. Dollar stands at around 85.0603 Indian Rupees, up by 0.13% from the previous day. The pair has appreciated by 2.25% year-to-date, indicating a strengthening U.S. Dollar against the Indian Rupee.
Things to Keep an Eye On
- US Consumer Confidence: Key for gauging sentiment and potential holiday season spending trends.
- Global GDP Data: Insights into economic performance in the UK, Eurozone, and Canada.
- Energy Prices: Natural gas and oil remain in focus as winter demand drives price action.
- Currency Movements: Watch for USD pairs’ reaction to the day’s data flow, especially the yen and pound.