UK GDP Rises, US Retail Sales Ahead
The day started with fresh updates on Australian employment and inflation expectations, alongside European CPI data. UK GDP and industrial production data have also been released, adding further context to today’s market movements. Meanwhile, US retail sales and jobless claims later today are set to drive key forex and commodities trends.
Key Data Out Today
- Australia: Employment Change for December surpassed expectations at 56.3K, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4%. Inflation expectations came in at 4%, unchanged from the previous month.
- Eurozone: December Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) matched forecasts at 2.8% YoY and 0.7% MoM.
- UK: November GDP MoM recorded a modest growth of 0.1%, while manufacturing output slipped by -0.3%.
- US: Retail sales and jobless claims data are due later today. Market participants will be watching these figures closely for clues on the state of the US economy.
Commodities
- Crude Oil: Brent rose 0.16% to $82.16, while WTI gained 0.33% to $80.30. Both benchmarks are supported by easing recession fears and improving demand outlooks.
- Natural Gas: Flat at $4.08/MMBtu, but recent volatility suggests traders are factoring in fluctuating weather conditions.
- Gold: Slightly higher at $2,698.22/oz (+0.12%), reflecting cautious market sentiment.
- Silver: Up 0.65% to $30.86/oz, benefiting from demand for industrial metals.
Currency Movements
EUR/USD
- EUR/USD: Edged up to 1.0296 (+0.07%) as Eurozone CPI data aligned with expectations.
GBP/USD
- GBP/USD: Down to 1.2216 (-0.21%), pressured by weaker UK manufacturing figures.
AUD/USD
- AUD/USD: Marginally lower at 0.6217 (-0.17%) despite strong Australian employment data.
NZD/USD
- NZD/USD: Little changed at 0.5610 (-0.04%), reflecting cautious trading.
USD/JPY
- USD/JPY: Down to 156.21 (-0.17%), as the yen strengthened slightly.
USD/CNY
- USD/CNY: Barely moved at 7.3478 (-0.02%), with the yuan showing resilience.
USD/CHF
- USD/CHF: Dipped to 0.9119 (-0.10%), with mild risk-off sentiment aiding the franc.
USD/CAD
- USD/CAD: Higher at 1.4355 (+0.10%), as crude oil prices supported the Canadian dollar.
USD/MXN
- USD/MXN: Up to 20.51 (+0.22%), reflecting cautious sentiment towards emerging market currencies.
USD/INR
- USD/INR: Flat at 86.45 (+0.01%), as traders await US retail sales data for direction.
Market Outlook
- US Retail Sales: Today’s retail sales figures are crucial for gauging consumer spending trends in the world’s largest economy.
- Oil Market: Crude oil prices may stay elevated as demand outlooks remain robust amid easing economic worries.
- Forex Trends: Currency pairs may exhibit volatility in response to US data later today, with special focus on the USD/JPY and GBP/USD movements.