UK Jobs Report: Unemployment Rises to 4.4%
This morning, the UK unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4% in the three months to November, slightly above expectations. Average earnings grew by 5.6%, reflecting continued wage growth.
Meanwhile, in the US, the Dollar gained strength following President Trump’s renewed tariff threats, driving cautious sentiment across currency markets. Traders now await further clarity on Trump’s economic policies and upcoming data releases.
Key Data Out Today
- United Kingdom:
- Claimant Count Change (December): A modest increase of 0.7K, far better than the expected rise of 10.3K and a sharp improvement from November’s 25.1K.
- ILO Unemployment Rate (3Mo, November): Edged up to 4.4% from 4.3%, aligning with consensus.
- Canada (CAD):
- Consumer Price Index Core (MoM, December): Forecast to decline by -0.1%.
- Headline CPI (MoM, December): Likely to fall by -0.7%, following a flat reading in November.
Commodities
- Gold: Trading at $2,727.50 per troy ounce, gold has increased by 0.63% today. This marks a 1.92% rise over the past week and a 4.26% gain over the past month. Year-to-date, gold has appreciated by 3.90%, and it has surged 34.93% over the past year.
- Silver: Currently at $30.525 per troy ounce, silver has decreased by 0.15% today. However, it has seen a 2.30% increase over the past week and a 2.86% rise over the past month. Year-to-date, silver is up 5.71%, with a 38.25% increase over the past year.
Currency Movements
EUR/USD
- EUR/USD: The euro is trading at 1.03777 against the US dollar, down 0.37% today. It has appreciated by 0.68% over the past week but has seen a 0.27% decline over the past month. Year-to-date, the euro is up 0.18%, though it has decreased by 4.63% over the past year.
GBP/USD
- GBP/USD: The British pound stands at 1.22764 against the US dollar, declining by 0.43% today. It has increased by 0.51% over the past week but has dropped 2.05% over the past month. Year-to-date, the pound is down 1.93%, with a 3.37% decrease over the past year.
AUD/USD
- AUD/USD: The Australian dollar trades at 0.62390, falling 0.57% today. It has risen 0.72% over the week, with a slight 0.16% drop for the month. Year-to-date, it has appreciated by 0.80%, though down 5.04% over the past year.
NZD/USD
- NZD/USD: The New Zealand dollar is at 0.56433, down 0.21% today. It has increased by 0.93% this week, with a marginal 0.07% monthly decline. Year-to-date, it is up 0.90% but has fallen 7.11% over the past year.
USD/JPY
- USD/JPY: The US dollar trades at 155.595 against the yen, flat today. Over the week, it has dropped by 1.50% and is down 1.00% for the month. Year-to-date, it is 1.12% lower, with a 5.06% rise year-on-year.
USD/CNY
- USD/CNY: The US dollar is at 7.28043 against the Chinese yuan, up 0.24% today. It is down 0.85% for the week and 0.36% for the month. Year-to-date, it has dropped 0.77% but has risen 1.23% over the past year.
USD/CHF
- USD/CHF: The US dollar stands at 0.90813 against the Swiss franc, gaining 0.11% today. It has dropped by 0.48% over the past week but is up 1.06% for the month. Year-to-date, it is 0.08% higher, with a 4.50% increase over the year.
USD/CAD
- USD/CAD: The US dollar trades at 1.44403 against the Canadian dollar, gaining 0.91% today. It has risen 0.63% over the past week and 0.48% over the past month. Year-to-date, it is up 0.43%, with a 7.13% gain year-on-year.
USD/MXN
- USD/MXN: The US dollar stands at 20.7564 against the Mexican peso, increasing by 1.15% today. It has risen 1.23% for the week and 2.95% over the past month. Year-to-date, it is down 0.39% but up 20.93% year-on-year.
USD/INR
- USD/INR: The US dollar trades at 86.5090 against the Indian rupee, rising 0.34% today. It has dropped 0.03% this week but is up 1.64% for the month. Year-to-date, it has risen by 1.08%, with a 4.10% yearly gain.
Market Outlook
- UK Debt Concerns: Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warns that the UK may face a “debt death spiral,” where increasing borrowing is needed to service rising debt costs. He highlights challenges in the gilt market and sterling weakness, suggesting that high-interest payments and potential tax hikes or spending cuts could exacerbate the situation.
- ASX Performance: The Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) closed at a six-week high, with the index rising 0.66%. Sectors such as financials, consumer cyclicals, and basic metals led the gains. Notably, lithium miners like Liontown Resources and Core Lithium showed strong increases. news
- US Tariff Policies: President Donald Trump’s recent statements on tariffs have introduced volatility in financial markets. While initially indicating a review of trade policies, his reiteration of a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada led to fluctuations in currencies and stock futures. Gold prices rose, and US Treasury yields dropped significantly in response.