U.S. Retail Sales & Eurozone GDP Shape Markets
Eurozone growth and U.S. consumer demand take stage today. The euro holds steady as markets await fresh growth forecasts, while the U.S. dollar trades mixed as investors gauge economic momentum. We stay neutral on the euro amid steady inflation but see room for dollar strength if retail sales outperform.
Oil prices remain stable, showing balanced supply and demand dynamics, while gold hovers near recent highs, supported by ongoing safe-haven flows.
Key Data Out Today
- Eurozone GDP (Q4 Prelim): Expected at 0.9% YoY, unchanged from the previous reading.
- U.S. Retail Sales (Jan): Expected at 0.3% MoM, with control group sales at 0.7%.
- U.S. Industrial Production (Jan): Forecast to increase by 0.3% MoM, reflecting a modest rebound.
- Fed’s Logan Speech: Investors will watch for any insights into monetary policy.
Commodities
- Crude Oil: Brent at $75.20, rising 0.25%, while WTI trades at $71.35, up 0.09%. Oil remains supported by supply concerns despite recent price volatility.
- Gold: Down 0.12% at $2,928, though still holding strong as inflation concerns persist.
- Silver: Up 0.40% at $32.49, continuing its recent bullish trend.
Currency Movements
EUR/USD – 1.0455 (-0.08%)
The euro is steady as markets digest Eurozone GDP data. A stronger-than-expected reading could boost the currency, while any downside surprise may reinforce concerns about sluggish growth in the region.
GBP/USD – 1.2557 (-0.07%)
The pound remains supported after better-than-expected GDP data. However, market focus shifts to upcoming U.S. retail sales, which could determine short-term dollar direction.
AUD/USD – 0.6320 (+0.04%)
The Australian dollar is holding firm despite lingering global risk concerns. Markets remain cautious as commodities show mixed performance, limiting further upside.
NZD/USD – 0.5686 (+0.62%)
The New Zealand dollar extends gains, benefiting from improved risk sentiment. However, traders remain wary of external factors, including U.S. data and potential Fed comments.
USD/JPY – 152.67 (-0.09%)
The yen remains stable, with some safe-haven demand limiting further weakness. Investors are watching U.S. retail sales data for clues on future Fed rate decisions.
USD/CNY – 7.2832 (+0.18%)
The yuan weakens slightly as Chinese economic concerns persist. A stronger U.S. retail sales report could push the pair higher, signaling further dollar strength.
USD/CHF – 0.9040 (+0.11%)
The Swiss franc is steady, reflecting cautious risk appetite. The dollar’s next move hinges on U.S. data, which could either strengthen or weaken its positioning.
USD/CAD – 1.4183 (-0.07%)
The Canadian dollar strengthens slightly as oil prices remain supported. However, a strong U.S. retail sales report could limit further gains for the loonie.
USD/MXN – 20.42 (+0.07%)
The Mexican peso remains under pressure amid external risk factors. The pair’s movement will be influenced by U.S. economic data and broader risk sentiment.
USD/INR – 86.85 (+0.24%)
The Indian rupee weakens slightly as dollar demand picks up. A strong U.S. retail sales report could add further pressure on the currency.
Market Outlook
- Eurozone GDP data is unlikely to cause major volatility, but weaker-than-expected growth could weigh on the euro.
- U.S. retail sales figures will be a key driver for the dollar, with a strong reading likely to reinforce expectations for a resilient U.S. economy.
- Fed’s Logan speech may provide further guidance on future rate policy, with markets closely watching any signals regarding inflation and interest rate expectations.